Al Sharpton, Primaries, & Caucuses

Ok. Let me get this straight. Civil Rights Arsonist, err I mean “Activist” Al Sharpton is getting ready to file a lawsuit if The DNC seats Florida delegates. That means Sharpton is seeking to disenfranchise Florida Democrats. Mmmm.

The thing about the DNC “punishing” Florida and Michigan for having early primaries is that I don’t believe they ever intended to not seat those delegates. With Florida and Michigan being battle ground states in the general election, and after the 2000 Florida recount, they wouldn’t risk alienating Democratic voters that way. I think the original plan was to seat those delegates via the credentials committee. But the DNC never expected such a close campaign and never expected those delegates to possibly be the difference in choosing their nominee. Ooops.

It’s interesting to watch the debate between the Clinton and Obama camps. The Obama camp says you need to follow the rules, so you can’t seat those delegates. But when it comes to Super Delegates, the will of the people is what is most important. Super Delegates they say should follow the will of the voters in their states. But of course, the “rules” leave Super Delegates free to vote however they wish.

Another interesting feature of this race are differences between primaries and caucuses. Obama has clearly had the edge in caucuses while Clinton has done better in primaries. Primaries with much larger voter participation are arguably more “democratic.” Caucuses on the other hand measure intensity of support. Voters have to spend several hours (or sometimes longer) to register support for their candidate. Caucuses therefore give more influence to the most passionate voters, those same voters that might become campaign volunteers in the general election.

Clearly Obama has more passionate highly motivated voters, giving him an advantage in caucuses. I wonder if there might not be another reason he does so well. Call it a reverse “Bradley effect”. Because there is no secret ballot in a caucus, do some voters feel a compulsion to vote for an African-American so as to not appear racist?

I will make some predictions. The DNC will work something out to allow delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated, most likely through a revote. Money is an issue as it will be expensive and the states do not want to pay for a new election. Caucuses would be cheaper, but as discussed above favor Obama and will therefore not be acceptable to Clinton. I would suggest that the cost of new primaries be split between the 2 campaigns (which are setting fundraising records). Regardless, at the end, Obama will still be in the lead in pledged delegates but short of the number needed to clinch the nomination. I think he will win as he is perceived as the stronger candidate. But never count out a Clinton.