Will Ralph Nader Affect The Race?

As you may recall if you read the first post I made to this blog, I am proud to say Ralph Nader once referred to me as a “fascist child of the ruling class.” He has never been one of my favorite people, though I did have warm feelings for him when he helped George W. Bush get elected in 2000. Could history repeat itself?

John Zogby has just released a new poll that shows Nader getting at least 5% of the vote nationally in a three way race, whether Obama or Clinton is the Democratic nominee. In a race with Hillary Clinton and Nader, McCain wins 45% to 39%. If it’s Obama it’s 44% to 39% for McCain. Zogby says:

Nader’s presence in the race can potentially turn a lulu of a race into an absolute tizzy. The messages to Democrats are clear – number one, Nader may win enough support to get into the general election debates. Number two, what could be at risk is support among several key constituencies that the Democratic Party candidate will need to win in November, notably younger voters, independents,
and progressives.

Honestly, when push comes to shove, I can’t see Nader getting 5% of the vote. Although, if Hillary is seen as “stealing” the nomination from Obama many disaffected voters may pull the lever (figuratively in states with optical ballots or touch screens) for Nader.